alt-think.com

• Merkel was able to turn her Chancellor role into a Presidential role, putting her beyond the day-to-day quarrels of political fights and giving her a Mother-of-the-Nation image
• Merkel crushed the Social Democrats, by moving her party to the left, leaving no political wiggle room for her junior partner in the coalition government
• Merkel is constantly avoiding to enter into any controversial political discussions but lets her party soldiers and officers lead the fight. She only comes in to announce the results, thus never taking a direct hit
• Merkel’s cool-headed, logic-driven and stubborn approach to conflicts has helped her to ride undamaged through the European debt crisis as well as major geopolitical controversies, e.g. the Ukraine/Russia conflict
• Her party has succeeded to turn her sober character and appearance into an untouchable political weight. Her style and behavior is no more ridiculed but admired
• Believe it or not, but under the camouflage of her general appearance, Merkel is the biggest populist leader of Europe. She has an excellent feeling for the mood of the population, and will jump on anything that she feels would impact on her leadership or incense major discussions, not hesitating to throw major concerns, values and beliefs of her own party under the bus: as happened with the exit from nuclear energy after the Fukushima accident or the legalization of same-sex marriage or the Diesel scandal of the German auto industry
• Last, but not least, she has been able to use Trump, Brexit, and Erdogan to promote her style of Governance as a guarantee for stability and predictability in Germany and in the World – and there is nothing that Germans love more

• Co-leading together with President Macron the European Union to the next development stage, and increasing integration after Brexit will require explaining to German voters why they will have to shoulder bigger financial contributions in European solidarity and why they will have to give up more financial sovereignty to a United Europe
• Reforming and rejuvenating the German economy, industry sectors, and infrastructure, which are currently lulled by the global success of their products and services. Drastic reforms and innovations of the car industry are needed to counter the rapid electrification and “Uberization” of the society and to avoid a coal industry deja-vu in this vital industry for Germany. Germany can and should afford to invest much more into building future options through education, IT and communication infrastructure, build-up of new industry segments. And finally, the society needs to be prepared for a rapid robotization of major production, supply, and service processes, which will lead to the disappearance of millions of jobs, while creating vast opportunities for others.
• Promoting a more balanced distribution of benefits and wealth in a society that has seen – as most of the Western societies did – a constant financial erosion of the middle class, the perception of taxation injustice, a burn-out frenzy, the evolution of multi-class health system with limited and decreasing access of the general population to first-class services, and will see the rapid disappearance of many low-skill jobs in the future.
• Beefing up the security and safety in a country that has welcomed more than a million new citizens in a wild process without any serious vetting. The hot refugee topic, that many domestic and foreign commentators have claimed to be her biggest political failure, will pose, absent of any ideology, a substantial security threat for Germany. To tackle the fears and concerns of the population and to counter all nationalist tendencies Merkel will have to increase spending and efforts in domestic security capabilities, including high-tech ex-post vetting, surveillance and profiling skills. All of this while transforming Germany into an open-minded, integrative society that can digest massive immigration and profit from an increase in diversity of cultures, languages, and skills.

#Fire and Fury –
World Stability and Security have deteriorated fast over the last years. Does the World need a massive global armed conflict to re-orientate??

Trump and Kim are openly playing with fire. The President of the US is chatting with the Chinese President over a piece of „great“ chocolate cake, while the US Navy is simultaneously bombing Syrian air bases. We are watching in awe and silent admiration the explosive power of the „Mother of All Bombs“ being dropped on Afghanistan after 15 years of armed conflict as if it would be the latest release of a computer war game. Japan and Germany, who had learned their lessons from the monstrous atrocities of WW2 are asked to massively increase defense spending and armament. Even a nuclear armament of these countries is no longer taboo in the discussion. Fascist and Chauvinist elements are gaining ground fast, the growing desire for strong and full-mouthed leaders is frightening. Democratic checks and balances are replaced with dictators, authoritarian systems, or one-person centric movements.

The Nation State proclaimed with a noisy „Us First“ is celebrating an amazing comeback. There is a populist outcry by the forgotten men and women and the abandoned and exploited middle class. And all this, while the Mother of all Bubbles, the illusion of free money for all, nurtured by the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ, is granting the treasuries the comfort to continue past excesses and inefficiencies.

Unfortunately, it looks like the World needs a huge catharsis to bring us back some urgently needed (re-)orientation. A clarification of what we want to have and what not, how we want to live and how not, how we want to treat our own people and our neighbors and how not. What the basic economic agreements are between rich and poor, between old an young, between capital and labor, and between nations and neighbors. Currently, it does not look like if we would be able to obtain this clarity through the mental and political evolution of our societies, but only through a major global catastrophe, that goes beyond borders, societies, religions. There is a multitude of factors leading to global instability, to a new geo-political reality, and each one of them has the potential to unleash a global chain reaction:

• The US, once perceived as the leader of the free world, is headed by a nationalist narcissist. Democratic principles are openly undermined and ridiculed.
• North Korea is playing openly with fire, but unfortunately on top of a nuclear warhead.
• The Middle East is in more chaos than ever. Syria is already a volatile, global battleground.
• Two powerful groups are forming, heavily armed, and ready to test their arsenals in the Middle East and beyond: Iran/Iraq/Turkey/Qatar/Afghanistan – Saudi Arabia/Egypt/UAE/(Israel).
• Old alliances break up without new ones evolving fast enough.
• Religious and political extremists are progressing worldwide.
• A migration iceberg is on the move.
• Democracy is losing out against Dictators and authoritarian systems, media are under attack.
• Fascist, Nationalist and Chauvinist Elements are growing, three generations after WW2 there is no collective memory on risks and dangers.
• Cyber War and Cyber Crime are a direct threat to democracy and the rule of law, and can only be tackled internationally.
• The end (if ever taking place) of cheap money will lead to global recession, in parallel to anti-globalization, protectionist trends.
• More and more traditional workplaces will be suppressed by robots, millions of people will not be able to contribute in the next generation labor market.
• The spiritual health of people is dying under a materialistic, ego-centric avalanche of individual self-optimization.

Unless the UNSC, i.e. the US, EU, Russia and China engage in a shared(!) control of a World in a lunatic frenzy, we are heading fast towards an unpredictable chaos, driven by selfish and authoritarian Nation States. And this will indeed cause fire and fury. Btw, a very similar situation to the pre-WW2 period. There is still hope that responsible leaders and politicians worldwide are waking up to the new geo-political reality, and give new vision and orientation to the World, but time is running out. Or humankind will have to go through the catharsis of a huge catastrophe. The good news is: artificial intelligence is advancing fast.

• Nato has been severely weakened. Article 5 no more unanimously supported. Individual states and EU to develop parallel defense structures to NATO
• Russia and China have gained global recognition and increased their significance as a global partner
• The armament race in the Middle East and around the globe has gained pace
• Already sensitive intelligence services are on alert and less inclined to share
• Global fight against climate change is substantially weakened
• The „Donald-gut-feeling against substance and logic” has led to firing and deliberate brain drain from the White House
• The American torch of freedom, human rights and democratic values is fading

• Election promises will be executed, fast and without compromise
• The media will be bashed and intimidated
• Twitter will remain the most important tool for policy announcement
• White House and President will be ruthless providers of alternative facts
• Policies are based on Presidential gut-feelings (the master dealer)
• Whoever dares to criticize will immediately be publicly punished
• The White House is dominating if not enslaving the GOP, the House and the Senate.
• A desperate Theresa May is ready to prostitute the UK and its beliefs and values for the sake of a free-trade deal with the US

• The GOP: unlikely, they are recovering from the ashes of a divisive campaign and sun bathing in the glory of dominating house and senate, Paul Ryan has become a puppet.
• The Democrats: unlikely, the party is completely in shatters and powerless, and the message of taking care for the forgotten man and woman goes down well with many Dems
• The Senate: more likely, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are waiting for their revenge and to position themselves as potential successors
• The Press: very likely, investigative journalists from the US will put a lot of energy into shedding light on Trump’s taxes, scandals, un-proper deals, lies. Every bashing will make them more hungry for the story
• Russia: unlikely, they will ride this wave as long as possible and exploit the situation, that Trump has promised to improve the relationship
• Europe: unlikely, completely divided, in the middle of election campaigns, on the brink of EU collapse
• China: more likely, after ending TPP, China is the partner of choice, and the economic power enormous, they will not be intimidated by Trump
• CIA: more likely, huge mistake of Trump to alienate publicly the services, they have a life of their own and they can be dangerous
• The Economy: very likely, It’s the economy, stupid! Impulsive actions and un-necessary trade wars might lead to more debt, weaker dollar and recession. The bluff would then be called by reality!