2016 could be regarded as a year of political and economic consolidation for Ukraine. With the ongoing Ukraine/Russia conflict posing a threat to the future development as well as the new US policy towards the given conflict being yet to forecast, there are definitely plenty of positive signs on Ukraine’s political horizon. We will share quarterly information on the developments in Ukraine in our new UKRAINE NEWSLETTER section.
Please see the Pessimism Report 2017, as it was published today on bloomberg.com . They had forecasted for 2016 the Trump Triumph and the Brexit. Chapeau. A little bit dark to read, especially as most of the events described are not entirely unrealistic. But to put it in the words of a famous future Ex-President: The Sun will also rise tomorrow, and Mr. Hawking has promised another 1.000 years to mankind.
Our view on the probability of these events:
YALTA 2.0: probable
CHINA/US Trade War: probable
KIM TRUMPS TRUMP: not probable
HEADS ROLL IN EUROPE:
- Le Pen: not probable
- Beppo Grillo: not probable
- Merkel Loses: not probable
- Schengen Dissolved: not probable
- Greece Blows Up: not probable
INTERNET of BAD THINGS: probable
CUBA BACK to USSR: not probable
MEXICO MELT-DOWN: probable
SAUDI ARABIA’S GOLDEN BOY SIDELINED: not probable
Friends: I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J.