The RealDonald proves to be very real. 7 days in office, and the world order is already shaking. The world is paralyzed, and in utter disbelief what is happening and how fast and how un-contested. Whoever had hoped or feared that the behavior of the President is different to the behavior of the President-Elect and to the the behavior of the Candidate has been proven tremendously wrong. What do we learn from the first days of the new President:
- Election promises will be executed, fast and without compromise
- The media will be bashed and intimidated
- Twitter will remain the most important tool for policy announcement
- White House and President will be ruthless providers of alternative facts
- Policies are based on Presidential gut-feelings (the master dealer)
- Whoever dares to criticize will immediately be publicly punished
- The White House is dominating if not enslaving the GOP, the House and the Senate.
- A desperate Theresa May is ready to prostitute the UK and its beliefs and values for the sake of a free-trade deal with the US
The humiliating treatment of the Mexican State and the Mexican President is un-precedented, and it sends a clear warning to other leaders and countries, who will be next in the line of fire: China, Japan, Germany, Iran and many more. The frightening thing about Donald Trump is that he has behavioral patterns of a narcissist gambler. He will march on without pity and fear, and will raise the stakes, until someone has the courage and power to call the bluff. The longer he can go on without resistance, the more dangerous the game will be for the US and for the World. The faster he will be forced into compromise and truth by US or international players, the better the outcome will be.
As Donald Trump is an enormously energetic change agent, he has a great potential to change the US, the economy, even the World for the better. But only if he will be contained, channeled, managed. This is unfortunately where the doubt comes into the play, as we have seen some patterns evolve over the past days that should be reason for concern. So who can call the bluff?
- The GOP: unlikely, they are recovering from the ashes of a divisive campaign and sun bathing in the glory of dominating house and senate, Paul Ryan has become a puppet.
- The Democrats: unlikely, the party is completely in shatters and powerless, and the message of taking care for the forgotten man and woman goes down well with many Dems
- The Senate: more likely, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are waiting for their revenge and to position themselves as potential successors
- The Press: very likely, investigative journalists from the US will put a lot of energy into shedding light on Trump’s taxes, scandals, un-proper deals, lies. Every bashing will make them more hungry for the story
- Russia: unlikely, they will ride this wave as long as possible and exploit the situation, that Trump has promised to improve the relationship
- Europe: unlikely, completely divided, in the middle of election campaigns, on the brink of EU collapse
- China: more likely, after ending TPP, China is the partner of choice, and the economic power enormous, they will not be intimidated by Trump
- CIA: more likely, huge mistake of Trump to alienate publicly the services, they have a life of their own and they can be dangerous
- The Economy: very likely, It’s the economy, stupid! Impulsive actions and un-necessary trade wars might lead to more debt, weaker dollar and recession. The bluff would then be called by reality!
Donald Trump is one of the greatest marketing geniuses in the World. From the organization of his campaign, the public crushing and humiliation of his opponents, the brutal crippling of the truth and the admirable mastering of direct communication with his fans and the general public via Twitter, it is clear that he is a brilliant sales man and marketeer. We have bought him and his ideas, and we will continue to cheer, as everyone is hungry for simple answers, fast solutions, pride and love for the nation, strength of the military and rising wages for the forgotten people, and let us not forget: we love to be entertained.
The problem is, there are no simple answers and solutions in our complex world of today. And the big danger is, that we are buying into simple, often unreflected answers and concepts, that will prove very costly and damaging in the end. The US and the World will pay dearly: in case we will get into a trade war with Mexico and China, in case the US will further destabilize the European Union or in case the US is ceasing to be the leading torch of the free world. Fake concepts, fake news, alternative facts and outright denials, when proven wrong, will lead at a certain point to an enormous crash – like building a great casino with a grand opening, and ending in bankruptcy. It is time that someone calls the bluff. The stakes keep raising.