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Pessimism Report 2017

Dec
06

Please see the Pessimism Report 2017, as it was published today on bloomberg.com . They had forecasted for 2016 the Trump Triumph and the Brexit. Chapeau. A little bit dark to read, especially as most of the events described are not entirely unrealistic. But to put it in the words of a famous future Ex-President: The Sun will also rise tomorrow, and Mr. Hawking has promised another 1.000 years to mankind.

The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017

Our view on the probability of these events:

TRUMPLANDIA: probable

YALTA 2.0: probable

CHINA/US Trade War: probable

KIM TRUMPS TRUMP: not probable

HEADS ROLL IN EUROPE:

  • Le Pen: not probable
  • Beppo Grillo: not probable
  • Merkel Loses: not probable
  • Schengen Dissolved: not probable
  • Greece Blows Up: not probable

INTERNET of BAD THINGS: probable

CUBA BACK to USSR: not probable

MEXICO MELT-DOWN: probable

SAUDI ARABIA’S GOLDEN BOY SIDELINED: not probable

 

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Why Trump Will Win

Jul
26
Dear Friends
Please see most interesting contribution of Michael Moore on „Why Trump will win“. An excellent analysis, and explanation why sometimes forecasters and mathematical models do not get it …
Enjoy reading

5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

Friends: I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J.

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