A bizarre year is coming (luckily) to an end. It still feels like attending a high speed, absurd theater play. Some of the most prominent topics of 2017 will (unfortunately) be shaping our world also in the coming year and beyond:
- Twitterman hits Rocketman: the US cannot and will not allow North Korea to develop the capability of reaching US soil with nuclear, biologic or other dirty warheads. Escalation can happen anytime.
- The Rise of the Great Narcissist Leader: New leaders are putting the political landscapes upside-down and render political parties obsolete. Brexit, Trump, Macron and now even Kurz in tiny little Austria have proven, that the time for „great“ leaders in Western democracies is back, their behavioral patterns well-known: nationalism, bashing/blaming of others, strong security, centralization of power, control of media, me and my country first and alone. Combine this with a tendency to blur facts with fake and to bypass parliamentary discussion processes and media. We have been there before in history.
- British Self Flagellation: In admirable self-humiliation the British Government is trying hard to make the Brexit process as chaotic and costly as possible for its population. For the sake of the unity of the Conservative Party the leadership is sacrificing the UK economy. Torys will have to shoulder historic blame if this will push a communist Prime Minister into office.
- Middle East Hazard: Local and global powers are successfully steering the most explosive region of the World from bad to worse. It doesn’t need much to ignite a fire, that would belittle the Syrian and Yemen civil wars. Energy rollercoaster included.
Other interesting developments in 2017:
- Diesel Obituary: Thanks to criminal and industry-wide cheating in combination with cities choking from pollution, a steep decline of the Diesel engine has started, which will shake up the industry
- #metoo: The sick behavior of maniacs leads to a crazy over-regulation of human interaction, both at the workplace and in private interactions
- Cryptocurrency frenzy: People are putting money into the unknown in an investment frenzy last seen during the great internet bubble.
- Bubble Party goes on: Central Bank ecstasy injections to markets are still showing effect. No hangover yet – despite warnings on the wall and interest rates rising.
- Spanish Bullfights: Royal Matadors are trying to tame the Catalan bull from breaking free. Who will go down first? Injuries on both sides to be expected.
More to come. We dare to forecast the following for 2018:
- The Return of the Dollar: Global uncertainties, the smell of war and the tax present of Santa Donald strengthen the USD
- US turning against China: Frustrated with not being able to solve the Korean problem, Trump delivers on a further election promise and starts hostile trade activities against China
- Energy Price Surge: Smart OPEC, Middle east explosions and strong economic growth in EU and US lead to a further increase of energy prices
- Inflation Reloaded: All of the above in concert with strong growth, rising interest rates and stronger employment bring back inflation, possibly stronger and faster than many believe
- Cryptocurrency breakdown: Crypto Heists, regulation and taxation and the issuing of cryptocurrencies by asset backed national banks lead to a steep loss of early cryptocurrencies
- The Bears go Hunting: The bears are back for the big fish, as economic realism is coming back to the investment table and all the good news are already priced into the market
- King BoJo playing Hamlet: “To Brexit or not To Brexit“ is the question of the year, which will be raised louder and louder. Dramatic showdowns and changes of main actors included
- French Renaissance: King Macron further takes the lead on the European and global stage and delivers in France. New strength of the French economy, resurrection of the Grande Nation
We wish to all our partners and friends a joyful and peaceful start into a sparkling, successful and healthy 2018! We would be honored and glad to help you grow your businesses successfully in the New Year. Stay out of trouble and try to watch less TV than the US President.