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7 days in office – who will call the bluff?

Jan
27
The RealDonald proves to be very real. 7 days in office, and the world order is already shaking. The world is paralyzed, and in utter disbelief what is happening and how fast and how un-contested. Whoever had hoped or feared that the behavior of the President is different to the behavior of the President-Elect and to the the behavior of the Candidate has been proven tremendously wrong. What do we learn from the first days of the new President:
  • Election promises will be executed, fast and without compromise
  • The media will be bashed and intimidated
  • Twitter will remain the most important tool for policy announcement
  • White House and President will be ruthless providers of alternative facts
  • Policies are based on Presidential gut-feelings (the master dealer)
  • Whoever dares to criticize will immediately be publicly punished
  • The White House is dominating if not enslaving the GOP, the House and the Senate.
  • A desperate Theresa May is ready to prostitute the UK and its beliefs and values for the sake of a free-trade deal with the US
The humiliating treatment of the Mexican State and the Mexican President is un-precedented, and it sends a clear warning to other leaders and countries, who will be next in the line of fire: China, Japan, Germany, Iran and many more. The frightening thing about Donald Trump is that he has behavioral patterns of a narcissist gambler. He will march on without pity and fear, and will raise the stakes, until someone has the courage and power to call the bluff. The longer he can go on without resistance, the more dangerous the game will be for the US and for the World. The faster he will be forced into compromise and truth by US or international players, the better the outcome will be.

 

As Donald Trump is an enormously energetic change agent, he has a great potential to change the US, the economy, even the World for the better. But only if he will be contained, channeled, managed. This is unfortunately where the doubt comes into the play, as we have seen some patterns evolve over the past days that should be reason for concern. So who can call the bluff?
  • The GOP: unlikely, they are recovering from the ashes of a divisive campaign and sun bathing in the glory of dominating house and senate, Paul Ryan has become a puppet.
  • The Democrats: unlikely, the party is completely in shatters and powerless, and the message of taking care for the forgotten man and woman goes down well with many Dems
  • The Senate: more likely, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are waiting for their revenge and to position themselves as potential successors
  • The Press: very likely, investigative journalists from the US will put a lot of energy into shedding light on Trump’s taxes, scandals, un-proper deals, lies. Every bashing will make them more hungry for the story
  • Russia: unlikely, they will ride this wave as long as possible and exploit the situation, that Trump has promised to improve the relationship
  • Europe: unlikely, completely divided, in the middle of election campaigns, on the brink of EU collapse
  • China: more likely, after ending TPP, China is the partner of choice, and the economic power enormous, they will not be intimidated by Trump
  • CIA: more likely, huge mistake of Trump to alienate publicly the services, they have a life of their own and they can be dangerous
  • The Economy: very likely, It’s the economy, stupid! Impulsive actions and un-necessary trade wars might lead to more debt, weaker dollar and recession. The bluff would then be called by reality!
Donald Trump is one of the greatest marketing geniuses in the World. From the organization of his campaign, the public crushing and humiliation of his opponents, the brutal crippling of the truth and the admirable mastering of direct communication with his fans and the general public via Twitter, it is clear that he is a brilliant sales man and marketeer. We have bought him and his ideas, and we will continue to cheer, as everyone is hungry for simple answers, fast solutions, pride and love for the nation, strength of the military and rising wages for the forgotten people, and let us not forget: we love to be entertained.

 

The problem is, there are no simple answers and solutions in our complex world of today. And the big danger is, that we are buying into simple, often unreflected answers and concepts, that will prove very costly and damaging in the end. The US and the World will pay dearly: in case we will get into a trade war with Mexico and China, in case the US will further destabilize the European Union or in case the US is ceasing to be the leading torch of the free world. Fake concepts, fake news, alternative facts and outright denials, when proven wrong, will lead at a certain point to an enormous crash – like building a great casino with a grand opening, and ending in bankruptcy. It is time that someone calls the bluff. The stakes keep raising.
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Major changes mean major opportunities in 2017

Jan
12
As the White House turns into a reality show inspired boardroom, and major global policy changes are announced and we should better believe they will happen, many CEOs and leaders are still standing on the sidelines!

 

Wrong! Get prepared, lead and innovate, major changes mean major opportunities. When the rules of the game change, new winners appear and unexpected losers are washed ashore!

 

When you are still doubtful whether all of what we are experiencing is true or not, read this presentation from Mehlman Castagnetti. Some interesting insights guaranteed.

back briefing

 

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Kompromat – the new IT world order

Jan
11

Kompromat – Wikipedia

Kompromat ( Russian: компромат, short for компрометирующий материал) is the Russian term for compromising materials about a politician or other public figure. Such materials can be used to create negative publicity, for blackmail, or for ensuring loyalty. Kompromat can be acquired from various security services, or outright forged, and then publicized by paying off a journalist.

Yesterday, news outlets around the World were eager to spread the news about compromising facts (in Russian called Kompromat) that had been collected by the Russian secret service (and without doubt also by other services) on Donald Trump. Immediately speculations were brought up, fed by opponents and hungered for by sensation and scandal paparazzi, that the future most powerful person in the World could be potentially blackmailed, and immediately confidential parts of intelligence reports are publicly available on the internet and could be the storyline for a new James Bond movie (see below). Whether these reports are real Kompromat or fake news, we will never know.
trump-intelligence-allegations
The good news first: it can be seriously doubted that Donald Trump can be blackmailed. In German there is  the famous saying, that once you have been publicly embarrassed, you can behave as you wish, there is no danger of further embarrassment, in other words you have received a kind of carte blanche on public shame. We can agree, that as Donald Trump is the incarnation of political incorrectness, he has long time ago earned this carte blanche, and his followers will further cheer revelations on Russian honey traps and deal sweeteners. In reality this will kill any potential for blackmail. Even the toughest kompromat will not compromise the new President. For sure, this situation would have been much more serious given a party animal, political correct or even Mormon President would be in office.
Now to the more serious part of the story. We are seeing the tipping point, where our dependence on IT in every sector of our life is rapidly becoming our biggest threat, the Achilles heel of both the safety of the general public, but also of every individual. Influence Meddling with US elections, hacking of DNC and the kompromat on Donald Trump are just the tip of the iceberg, In reality, there is no protection of the state and by the state, there is barely any meaningful regulation and inter-country co-operation to increase the IT safety levels of our countries and us as citizens. I am convinced that this will be seen in very short time as one of the biggest scandals and acts of naivety of global politics and as a great failure of political as well as corporate leaders.
We invite you to reflect on the following topics:
  • Global criminal groups and terrorists will hit: the next big terror attack will be a cyber attack. Last year we have seen many tests for attacks – on telecom infrastructure, energy grids, banking systems and hijacking of devices. Although these were already impressive attacks, many experts believe that they were only test balloons for future, much more massive attacks.
  • Increased influence meddling in international political and corporate affairs: Do not believe it is only Russia. All(!) Governments who have the technological capabilities, use cyber activities to support their international policy agenda. This will increase dramatically, as the barriers for meddling go down and the tools and techniques get more refined. Whatever you see on the Government level, you will also see with a certain delay in the corporate sector.
  • Loss of authenticity of information: Nobody can say or verify, whether any piece of information, news or report is authentic or not. The proliferation of so-called fake news and the labelling of true news as fake news is on the extreme rise and the individual has practically no possibility to verify any received information.
  • Hostile activities against individuals and corporations: stealing of information and knowledge, break-ins into bank accounts and all other private data areas, diffamation with fake news or illegally placed documents and traces into your private areas, will be a serious threat to all individuals and corporates who are not extremely careful and/or protected.
  • Dark web transactions: We are aware and we allow parts of the internet to act openly and completely outside of any legislation, and to be used for national and international drugs, narcotics and arms proliferation as well as all other kinds of illegal activities. This is a time bomb for the future.
How can one react and prepare against these threats? Practically not much. A lot of time has been lost, and the global IT/Web architecture is open and fragile. So for now, protection seems to be the best available option. On the macro level this means:
  • Expect a massive international arms race in cyber war and IT defense measures
  • Expect the IT security industry will finally get the real big boost
  • Hopefully, the UN will start  to engage and found UNITA or similar, as a special UN agency for IT regulation and protection against abuse of the global web.
And on the micro-level?  As even Angela Merkels phone can be listened, consider that all phone calls, all emails, all SMS and even your Vibers and Whatsapps are hacked, listened to and surveilled and might be used against you by your own or foreign Governments, by criminals and by political or business opponents. In this case hold it with Donald Trump: write and talk less sensitive information on phone/internet. Get invested commercially into IT security and apply it for yourself, and do not put too much trust in any news, in the political or economic arena, it could be fake, or fake fake, or verified fake, or falsified truth, or simply a kompromat. You name it.
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